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The Army-Navy game is a unique fixture in college football, celebrated for its history and intense rivalry. It is the lone game scheduled for the Saturday following the conference championship weekend in December. Traditionally, this matchup hasn’t influenced standings or national championship prospects.
This year presents a different scenario.
Both service academies are undefeated and ranked, making them strong contenders for the 12-team College Football Playoff if one can secure the American Athletic Conference (AAC) title. Army, ranked No. 1, boasts a 7-0 record, while Navy, sitting at No. 24, holds a 6-0 record. However, the playoff lineup will be finalized on December 8, a week before the Army-Navy game in Landover, Maryland. As members of the AAC, they might face each other twice in a season.
The unfolding situation
Army’s quarterback, Bryson Daily, leads with an impressive 19 rushing touchdowns. The Black Knights have not trailed in any game this season, showcasing a dominant rushing offense led by Daily’s 26 total touchdowns. With a 6-0 AAC record, Army has only two conference games remaining against North Texas and UTSA.
Navy, undefeated at 6-0, faces a critical matchup against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium. This marks their strongest season since 2019 when they achieved 11 wins. Currently, both teams top the AAC standings.
Potential for dual meetings
It’s possible for Army and Navy to compete twice consecutively, first in the AAC championship on December 6 and then in their annual game on December 14. Tulane, with a 3-0 conference record, could disrupt Navy’s plans if they win against them on November 16.
Impact on the CFP
While the AAC championship could influence the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection, the traditional Army-Navy game will not. The playoff selections occur on December 8, preceding their annual match. Previously, the selection committee would consider Army-Navy implications, but with the 12-team playoff starting December 20-21, this is no longer feasible. Thus, a scenario exists where a service academy might win the AAC and secure a CFP spot, yet lose the final regular-season game to the same opponent.
Preparation challenges
Should Army or Navy enter the playoffs, they would face a tighter preparation schedule compared to other teams, as no others play on the week of December 14.
Playoff chances
The probability of either team reaching the playoffs stands at 29.6%. However, individual chances vary based on future games. If Navy defeats Notre Dame, their playoff likelihood increases to 10%; a loss decreases it to 5%. Army, facing Air Force, has higher odds: 30% with a victory and 14% with a loss. Army also plays Notre Dame on November 23 at Yankee Stadium.
Army has a 63% chance of winning the AAC, while Navy holds a 15% chance according to Austin Mock’s model.
Path to the playoffs
For Army or Navy to reach the playoffs, they must continue winning and secure the AAC title. Additionally, the Mountain West teams need to falter. Boise State (5-1) is ranked higher, with UNLV (6-1) also in contention. Boise State’s game at UNLV could significantly impact playoff dynamics.
Historical context
Army has claimed five national championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), though titles were claimed by multiple programs during those years. Navy shares the 1926 national title. The last top 10 AP ranking for either team was in 1964 when Navy reached No. 6.
Upcoming games
Army concludes the regular season against Air Force, North Texas, Notre Dame, UTSA, and Navy. Navy’s remaining schedule includes games with Notre Dame, Rice, South Florida, Tulane, East Carolina, and Army.
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