During the last quarter of 2024, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This expansion was below the expected 2.6% and represented a slowdown from the 3.1% increase seen in the previous quarter.
Main Factors Contributing to Economic Expansion
Key Drivers of Economic Growth
Quarterly Comparison Analysis
The 2.3% growth in the fourth quarter marks the slowest quarterly increase since 2018, a time when the economy expanded by 0.6% in that same period. Annually, the economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, just under the 2.9% expansion noted in 2023.
Elements Leading to the Deceleration
Varios factores influyeron en la desaceleración del crecimiento en el último trimestre:
Several elements contributed to the moderated growth in the fourth quarter:
Presiones Inflacionarias e Implicaciones Políticas
La inflación persistente sigue siendo motivo de preocupación, con el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) subiendo a 2.9% en diciembre de 2024. Este aumento en la inflación ha llevado a los economistas a modificar sus pronósticos, esperando que las presiones sobre los precios continúen el próximo año. La Reserva Federal se enfrenta al desafío de equilibrar los esfuerzos para controlar la inflación sin frenar el crecimiento económico.
Persistent inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 2.9% in December 2024. This uptick in inflation has led economists to adjust their forecasts, anticipating continued price pressures in the coming year. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing efforts to control inflation without stifling economic growth.
A pesar de preocupaciones previas, el mercado laboral mostró resistencia, con la tasa de desempleo bajando a 4.1% en diciembre de 2024. No obstante, las proyecciones indican un leve aumento en el desempleo para finales de 2025, reflejando posibles ajustes en el mercado laboral mientras la economía enfrenta desafíos continuos.
Perspectivas para 2025
Observing the future, the economic forecast for 2025 offers a varied scenario:
Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2025 presents a mixed picture:
- Growth Projections: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a moderation in economic growth, with GDP expected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, down from an estimated 2.3% in 2024.
- cbo.gov
- Inflation Expectations: Economists anticipate that inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, influenced by factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions and policy decisions.
- reuters.com
- Policy Considerations: Proposed tariffs and stricter immigration policies could exert additional inflationary pressures and impact labor market dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring and policy adjustments.
