UFC superstar Conor McGregor has revealed his plans to step back into the boxing ring, announcing a potential fight against social media influencer and WWE star Logan Paul’s older brother, Jake Paul. The news has sent shockwaves through the combat sports world, with fans and pundits speculating on the fight’s implications, while bookmakers are already crunching numbers for what could become one of the most-watched boxing events in history.
The buzz for a McGregor-Jake Paul fight isn’t entirely new; rumors have swirled for months about the possibility. Now, according to ESPN’s Salvador Rodriguez, the fight is officially under consideration for the summer of 2025, with discussions pointing to a match in July, August, or September.
If the fight takes place, it will likely follow standard boxing rules: 12 three-minute rounds, 10-ounce gloves, and a weight limit of approximately 195 pounds. Jake Paul last fought at 227 pounds in his bout against Mike Tyson, while McGregor hovers around 170 pounds. This weight disparity raises questions about McGregor’s ability to bulk up effectively for the fight, adding an extra layer of intrigue.
The Betting Landscape
Jake Paul’s star power has already proven its worth in the boxing world. His fight against Mike Tyson attracted 108 million viewers and generated an $80 million prize pool. Many experts believe a bout with McGregor could eclipse those numbers, potentially crossing the nine-figure threshold.
Bookmakers are preparing for a betting frenzy. John Murray, vice president of race and sports at Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, suggested an opening line of Paul -200 (bet $200 to win $100) against McGregor. “It seems like a fair starting point,” Murray said, noting that McGregor’s popularity guarantees significant betting action.
The question of McGregor’s readiness looms large. “195 pounds is a lot of weight for McGregor,” Murray added. “I’m not sure he has the same drive or fitness level he had earlier in his career. If it’s a boxing match, Paul should be the favorite, but McGregor will always attract public bets.”
McGregor’s 2017 boxing match against Floyd Mayweather Jr. serves as a key reference point. Despite Mayweather’s perfect 49-0 record, McGregor was a magnet for public money, causing Mayweather’s opening line of -2700 to plunge to -500 by fight night.
Chris Andrews, South Point sportsbook director, recalled the hype vividly. “You couldn’t stop people from betting on McGregor,” Andrews said. “We opened Mayweather at -2700 and closed at -500. It was nerve-wracking, but in the end, we did pretty well.”
For Paul-McGregor, Andrews suggested an opening line of Paul -225. However, he acknowledged McGregor’s challenges in bulking up and the unpredictability of public sentiment.
Other bookmakers offered varied predictions. Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk management at Westgate SuperBook, proposed odds of Jake Paul -175 and McGregor +155. Tony Miller, Golden Nugget’s executive director of sports betting, leaned more heavily toward Paul, predicting a line of -240.
Professional bettors also weighed in. David Woodley argued that Paul should be a much heavier favorite, estimating the true line at -340. “Paul is in his prime and has been boxing for years,” Woodley said. “McGregor is smaller, inactive, and has a lot of personal distractions.”
Meanwhile, WynnBET senior trader Motoi Pearson offered a more conservative estimate: Paul -150. “McGregor isn’t a 58-year-old man like Tyson,” Pearson quipped, highlighting the Irish fighter’s relative youth and athleticism.
The Paul Effect
Jake Paul’s rise in the boxing world has been polarizing but undeniably lucrative. His fight against Mike Tyson demonstrated his ability to attract massive audiences and generate revenue. Circa Sports reported overwhelming support for Tyson leading up to the fight, with bettors banking on nostalgia for the former heavyweight champion. However, Paul’s size, power, and conditioning ultimately proved too much for the 58-year-old Tyson.
“Paul’s size and consistency were impressive,” said professional bettor Brandon Wittmyer. “He was undervalued by the market. Against Tyson, Paul could’ve been priced at -10000.”
The McGregor fight, however, presents a new challenge. McGregor, though primarily an MMA fighter, has proven his marketability and resilience in high-profile bouts. His fight with Mayweather, while ultimately a loss, showcased his ability to compete against elite boxers in the early rounds.
Public Perception and Market Impact
The potential Paul-McGregor fight is expected to become a cultural phenomenon, drawing interest from combat sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike. Analysts predict the fight could break streaming records and generate unprecedented betting activity.
Despite concerns about McGregor’s form and weight gain, his charisma and reputation ensure he will remain a popular underdog. “People love to bet on McGregor,” said Duane Colucci, sportsbook director at Rampart Casino. “Even with the odds against him, he’ll attract public money.”
For Jake Paul, the fight represents another opportunity to solidify his position as a legitimate boxer while continuing to capitalize on his influencer status. Paul’s dedication to the sport and physical advantages make him a favorite among analysts, but the unpredictability of boxing—and McGregor’s flair for the dramatic—means anything is possible.
While the fight has yet to be officially confirmed, the prospect of Jake Paul vs. Conor McGregor has already captivated fans, bookmakers, and sports analysts. With its mix of star power, controversy, and high stakes, the bout has all the ingredients to become a defining moment in modern boxing.
As the combat sports world waits for further developments, one thing is clear: if this fight happens, it will be a spectacle like no other.
