Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, faces a diplomatic storm as tensions between Tokyo and Beijing flare over Taiwan. What began as a cautious exchange of handshakes has quickly escalated into one of the sharpest confrontations between the two Asian powers in years.
Escalating friction between Tokyo and Beijing
Barely a month into her term, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi finds herself at the center of a major international dispute. Only days after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping, relations between Japan and China have deteriorated dramatically, fueled by harsh rhetoric and nationalist fervor. The immediate cause of the rift stems from Takaichi’s comments regarding Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a core national interest and an inseparable part of its territory.
During a parliamentary session on November 7, Takaichi stated that any potential Chinese assault on Taiwan—located a short distance from Japanese islands—would be considered “a situation threatening Japan’s survival.” Her words suggested that such an event could provoke a defensive military response from Tokyo. This shift marked a sharp departure from previous Japanese administrations, which had traditionally avoided implying direct military involvement in Taiwan’s defense.
Beijing responded with outrage, condemning Takaichi’s comments as a serious intrusion into China’s domestic matters. The reaction extended beyond mere diplomatic declarations. Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, posted on X (previously Twitter), stating, “The protruding dirty neck must be severed.” Tokyo criticized the swiftly removed post as “utterly unsuitable,” while Taiwan characterized it as an overt menace.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs came to Xue’s defense, stating that his remarks were a response to Japan’s “perilous and mistaken” declarations. Authorities accused Tokyo of eroding China’s sovereign rights and cautioned that the matter of Taiwan constitutes an unyielding boundary.
The reverberations of “wolf warrior” diplomacy
The episode has revived memories of China’s so-called “wolf warrior” diplomacy—a combative foreign policy style that gained prominence in the early 2020s. At the time, Chinese diplomats often used social media to confront critics head-on, sometimes in inflammatory terms. Although Beijing had sought in recent years to soften this approach to rebuild trust with Western nations, the latest confrontation indicates a possible return to that aggressive posture.
Within China, nationalist sentiment and state-controlled media have intensified public indignation towards Japan. The People’s Daily, the primary publication of the Communist Party, characterized Takaichi as “irresponsible” and cautioned that “overstepping the boundary on Taiwan will incur consequences.” An account linked to China’s state television ridiculed her, inquiring, “Has she been hit in the head by a donkey?” Concurrently, Hu Xijin, a notable pundit and former editor of the Global Times, further inflamed the discourse, stating that China’s “weapon for decapitating invaders has been honed” and implying Japan would face ruin if it meddled in the Taiwan Strait.
Takaichi has since tried to downplay the situation, clarifying that her statements were hypothetical and not intended as a policy declaration. Yet her position remains precarious. Japan depends heavily on China as its largest trading partner, even as it grows increasingly wary of Beijing’s military expansion in the East and South China Seas. Balancing national security concerns with economic interdependence has become one of Takaichi’s greatest challenges.
A delicate diplomatic balancing act
Takaichi’s methodology mirrors her enduring conservative perspective on national security. As a protégé of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she has championed a more robust military stance and enhanced collaboration with the United States and its regional partners. Initial declarations from her administration concerning Taiwan, alongside her engagement with the island’s delegates at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, indicated a sustained progression in Japan’s move towards a more confident foreign policy.
During her meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October, Takaichi emphasized the importance of a “strategic, mutually beneficial relationship.” However, she also raised concerns about China’s military maneuvers near disputed islands in the East China Sea—territory claimed by both nations. That discussion, though seemingly cordial at the time, foreshadowed the deeper friction now unfolding.
The ongoing diplomatic dispute arises at a notably delicate juncture. This year commemorates the 80th anniversary of World War II’s conclusion—a conflict that persistently influences both Chinese and Japanese national identities. Beijing observed this occasion with an extensive military procession, displaying its military might and reinforcing its historical account of opposition to Japanese aggression.
In the lead-up to the anniversary, Chinese officials accused Japan of minimizing its wartime atrocities, while state media released several films depicting Japanese soldiers’ brutality during the war, including dramatizations of the Nanjing Massacre. The Japanese embassy in Beijing even advised its citizens to speak discreetly in public, fearing potential hostility amid rising nationalist fervor.
Taiwan’s historical legacy
The historical animosity between the two nations extends beyond World War II, intertwining with the complex history of Taiwan itself. Once under Japanese colonial rule following its cession by Imperial China in the late 19th century, Taiwan remained a Japanese possession until Tokyo’s defeat in 1945. Afterward, China’s Nationalist government took control of the island, only to retreat there after losing the civil war to the Communists in 1949.
Since then, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has regarded Taiwan as a breakaway province destined for reunification. From Beijing’s perspective, the conclusion of World War II represented the island’s “liberation” from Japanese occupation—a narrative deeply ingrained in the nation’s political identity. Chinese officials often evoke this history to reinforce claims of sovereignty and justify their opposition to foreign involvement in the Taiwan issue.
When questioned about Takaichi’s statements, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, referenced this shared past, asserting that Japan bears “historical responsibility” for its colonial rule over Taiwan. He declared that China had “restored” the island 80 years ago and warned that any attempt to obstruct reunification would be met with firm resistance.
The unpredictable journey forward
The current diplomatic crisis highlights the enduring volatility of East Asian geopolitics. Japan’s growing security cooperation with the United States and its increased defense spending have already drawn Beijing’s scrutiny. Now, under Takaichi’s leadership, Tokyo appears willing to adopt a more outspoken stance on regional security, particularly regarding Taiwan’s stability.
For China, the issue transcends mere diplomacy—it touches on national identity and sovereignty. As such, even a hypothetical suggestion of Japanese military involvement in Taiwan is perceived as a direct provocation.
While both governments may ultimately seek to de-escalate tensions, the incident underscores how fragile the balance remains between two of Asia’s most powerful nations. Each misstep risks reigniting old hostilities that never fully faded with time.
In this climate of suspicion and lingering historical grievances, each utterance holds significant importance. For Takaichi, who has only recently assumed her position, the task involves steering Japan’s course between strategies of deterrence and diplomatic engagement—upholding peace while resolutely defending national interests. Her ability to strike this equilibrium without exacerbating tensions with China will probably determine not only her effectiveness as a leader but also the future direction of East Asian affairs in the upcoming period.
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