Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Islamist rebels, Syria continues to face significant instability. The interim administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is struggling with increasing security issues, such as fierce resistance from Assad’s remaining supporters. Although the fall of Assad’s repressive regime was a pivotal moment in Syria’s 13-year conflict, achieving lasting peace remains a complex challenge.
The interim government, primarily made up of individuals who gained influence from opposition areas such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a nation left divided and ravaged by prolonged conflict. The elimination of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has led to the displacement of countless former regime members and supporters. A significant number of these individuals have declined to accept the new government’s authority, contributing to instability that jeopardizes the delicate administration.
A persistent menace from supporters of Assad
In the periods following Assad’s exit, his supporters have become a major rebel force. These leftovers of the former regime, many deeply rooted in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political structures, have utilized their existing networks to coordinate armed opposition. This revolt has been especially active in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartous, traditional strongholds of the Assad lineage and residence to a substantial portion of Syria’s Alawite minority.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently highlighted a fatal ambush in the province of Latakia, where gunmen attacked government troops trying to detain a former Assad official. This assault resulted in the deaths of at least 13 security members and sparked a surge of violence throughout the area. By the next day, confrontations had intensified, leading to more than 120 fatalities—a clear indication of the difficulties confronting the interim administration.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research body, has cautioned that Assad loyalists may constitute some of the most proficient insurgent groups in Syria. Their expertise in military strategy and capacity to exploit existing networks provide them with a tactical edge in orchestrating assaults against the new regime. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating insurgency is the primary hurdle to solidifying control and maintaining national security.
Increasing strife in Alawite areas
The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have intensified the friction between Syria’s Sunni-led interim government and the Alawite minority, a Shia sect that was the core of Assad’s administration. The Alawites, who held influence and advantages during Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks following its downfall. Despite Sharaa’s promises to honor Syria’s varied religious groups, many now feel excluded and under threat.
The insurgent activity in Latakia and Tartous has further strained relations between Syria’s Sunni-led transitional government and the Alawite minority, a Shia offshoot that formed the backbone of Assad’s regime. The Alawites, who enjoyed privileges and power under the Assad government, have faced significant losses in the aftermath of its collapse. Many now feel marginalized and targeted, despite Sharaa’s assurances that his administration will respect Syria’s diverse religious communities.
The scenario in Syria’s southern region continues to be unstable. Despite an agreement struck with Druze forces earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters opposition from multiple factions nationwide. Given that various areas are governed by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim government’s influence is both restricted and divided.
The upcoming economic and diplomatic hurdles
The economic and diplomatic challenges ahead
Beyond the immediate security threats, Syria’s transitional government is contending with a dire economic situation. Years of war have left nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the country remains under crippling international sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Sharaa’s administration has made lifting these sanctions a priority, viewing it as essential to rebuilding the economy and gaining legitimacy on the global stage.
A nation split
A country divided
For Sharaa, unifying the nation involves both gaining the people’s trust and overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has urged former Assad security members to lay down arms and seek reconciliation, yet advancements have been sluggish. “We are monitoring everyone, but do not wish to give the impression of pursuing them,” stated a senior official in the transitional government. This careful strategy illustrates the delicate equilibrium the new leadership needs to maintain in their effort to restore order while avoiding the alienation of important population segments.
The Path Forward
The ousting of Bashar al-Assad was a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, yet the transition to peace and stability is riddled with challenges. From the insurgent dangers presented by Assad’s supporters to the profound splits among Syria’s religious and ethnic groups, the future remains uncertain. The interim administration must maneuver through these difficulties while attending to the urgent demands of a populace ravaged by over ten years of conflict.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marked a significant turning point in Syria’s history, but the country’s transition to peace and stability remains fraught with challenges. From the insurgent threat posed by Assad loyalists to the deep divisions among Syria’s religious and ethnic communities, the road ahead is uncertain. The interim government must navigate these obstacles while addressing the pressing needs of a population devastated by more than a decade of war.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.
